Now that conference tournaments have concluded, NCAA regionals matchups have been announced and high school private workout season is in full swing, the 2024 draft class has come into enough focus to put together my first full mock draft of the year before the draft begins on July 14.
The perception of the top of this draft class has taken a big step forward from industry evaluators over the course of the season. It’s a college-heavy group all throughout the first round, with some solid high school and college pitching depth near the end of the round, and light on high school position players.
With a very clear tier of 10 players at the top (you can jump into my latest draft rankings for more on that), it’s likely that group makes up eight or nine of the first 10 picks. I say eight or nine because the financial incentives exist, given the draft’s bonus pool structure, for at least one team in the top 10 picks to opt for savings for a later selection if they don’t like the players and asking prices they’re left with from that top group. Which prospects fall the farthest from my rankings is among the surprises you will find in this mock draft.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
This is the annual silly season for No. 1 overall pick rumors in years without a slam-dunk top player — and this is especially so when a progressive, value-oriented club like Cleveland is picking first and is interested in the best player given the price. The buzz for weeks that Travis Bazzana has more momentum here than Condon seems to be right on time to start pushing prices down of the players Cleveland actually wants. How this pick plays out isn’t a done deal by any stretch (I’d bet it won’t be until draft day, likely later in the day), so acting like this is likely to be any one player would be premature. Given what I know right now, I’ll go with the consensus best player.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Burns is in the mix at basically all of these top picks, but there are also scenarios where he falls out of the top five, so he may come at a slight discount if selected at picks two or three. It may not be the consensus view, but there are scouting directors who think Burns is better than Paul Skenes was as a draft prospect; you can’t deny their pitch grades and arsenal are pretty similar. The industry belief is Condon and Jac Caglianone are also leading options here.
3. Colorado Rockies
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
If Bazzana doesn’t go first, he’s perceived to have landing spots at picks three and four. Colorado seems to be the floor for Condon, and the Rockies are also on Burns and Caglianone. This is also Hagen Smith’s first real potential landing spot.
Oakland Athletics
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
Most scouting directors have the same group of names going in the first four picks, but the order may be shuffled a bit, with the names also similar across the industry for picks five to 10. Oakland has been on Nick Kurtz for months (his shoulder issues could push him down the board if he doesn’t go here), and this is believed to be Braden Montgomery’s first spot (he should go in picks four to seven).
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2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0: Who will go No. 1 to the Guardians?
Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana is among the top 2024 MLB draft prospects — where does he land in Kiley McDaniel’s mock draft? Amanda Loman/Getty Images
Kiley McDaniel, ESPN MLB Insider
May 29, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
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Now that conference tournaments have concluded, NCAA regionals matchups have been announced and high school private workout season is in full swing, the 2024 draft class has come into enough focus to put together my first full mock draft of the year before the draft begins on July 14.
The perception of the top of this draft class has taken a big step forward from industry evaluators over the course of the season. It’s a college-heavy group all throughout the first round, with some solid high school and college pitching depth near the end of the round, and light on high school position players.
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With a very clear tier of 10 players at the top (you can jump into my latest draft rankings for more on that), it’s likely that group makes up eight or nine of the first 10 picks. I say eight or nine because the financial incentives exist, given the draft’s bonus pool structure, for at least one team in the top 10 picks to opt for savings for a later selection if they don’t like the players and asking prices they’re left with from that top group. Which prospects fall the farthest from my rankings is among the surprises you will find in this mock draft.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
This is the annual silly season for No. 1 overall pick rumors in years without a slam-dunk top player — and this is especially so when a progressive, value-oriented club like Cleveland is picking first and is interested in the best player given the price. The buzz for weeks that Travis Bazzana has more momentum here than Condon seems to be right on time to start pushing prices down of the players Cleveland actually wants. How this pick plays out isn’t a done deal by any stretch (I’d bet it won’t be until draft day, likely later in the day), so acting like this is likely to be any one player would be premature. Given what I know right now, I’ll go with the consensus best player.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
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Burns is in the mix at basically all of these top picks, but there are also scenarios where he falls out of the top five, so he may come at a slight discount if selected at picks two or three. It may not be the consensus view, but there are scouting directors who think Burns is better than Paul Skenes was as a draft prospect; you can’t deny their pitch grades and arsenal are pretty similar. The industry belief is Condon and Jac Caglianone are also leading options here.
3. Colorado Rockies
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
If Bazzana doesn’t go first, he’s perceived to have landing spots at picks three and four. Colorado seems to be the floor for Condon, and the Rockies are also on Burns and Caglianone. This is also Hagen Smith’s first real potential landing spot.
4. Oakland Athletics
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
Most scouting directors have the same group of names going in the first four picks, but the order may be shuffled a bit, with the names also similar across the industry for picks five to 10. Oakland has been on Nick Kurtz for months (his shoulder issues could push him down the board if he doesn’t go here), and this is believed to be Braden Montgomery’s first spot (he should go in picks four to seven).
5. Chicago White Sox
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Given the success the White Sox have found with lower-slot lefties Garrett Crochet and Noah Schultz, Smith sure seems to fit their type, and the industry buzz matches that. I think Chicago would take any of the first four players in this projection if they happen to fall here. Otherwise, they’re tied to Smith as their top choice of the next handful of players.
6. Kansas City Royals
Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M
K.C. has been tied to almost every player in the top ten. I think they’d also take any of the first four projected picks if they get to this spot. They’ve also been linked to both top prep bats, Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin, but I think those are secondary choices. For later picks, the Royals have been tied to almost every prep pitcher in the draft, so I have a good chuckle whenever I get a phone call that another one comes up tied to them.
