The Toronto Maple Leafs are strongly expected to re-sign veteran center John Tavares, with multiple factors pointing toward a return. These include a weak free agent market, his long-standing presence and leadership on the team, and what appears to be a mutual desire for him to finish his career in Toronto. While the team is entering a new phase — having moved on from Mitch Marner and freed up salary cap space — the focus now is on how to structure Tavares’s next contract in a way that supports their ambitions.
Tavares, now 34 years old, is nearing the end of the seven-year, $77 million deal he signed back in 2018. That contract carried an $11 million annual cap hit, but his next deal will undoubtedly involve a significant pay cut. Still, even with his salary set to shrink, the Maple Leafs must be careful not to overcommit financially if they want to use their available cap space to strengthen the roster in other key areas.
Recently, a perfect reference point emerged to help Toronto determine what a reasonable deal for Tavares might look like.
Earlier this week, the Dallas Stars re-signed center Matt Duchene, who is also 34, to a four-year, $18 million contract, which carries an average annual value (AAV) of $4.5 million. Duchene’s deal has quickly become a strong comparison for Toronto’s negotiations with Tavares.
Of course, there are important contextual differences between Duchene’s situation and Tavares’s. Duchene accepted a very team-friendly deal largely due to the constraints of the Stars’ salary cap situation, his desire to stay in Dallas, and the tax advantages of living in Texas, where there is no state income tax. In fact, the Stars made further room by trading Mason Marchment and his $4.5 million cap hit just hours after signing Duchene.
Duchene appeared willing to “play ball” in order to remain with the Stars under favorable financial and lifestyle conditions. That same urgency or incentive may not apply to Tavares. For one, he plays in Canada, which carries higher income tax burdens. Second, Toronto isn’t under the same cap pressure that Dallas faced — the Leafs have roughly $25.7 million in space to sign four or more forwards. That means Tavares has more flexibility in negotiations and could push for a higher salary without jeopardizing the team’s overall financial planning.
When comparing the two players on paper, they’ve produced at a similar rate in recent seasons. Over the last three years, Duchene has averaged 0.87 points per game, while Tavares has posted 0.93 points per game. One could argue that Duchene might have similar or better stats had he spent more of that time playing with elite offensive talent like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander, as Tavares has. Duchene spent time with the Nashville Predators, a team not particularly known for offensive firepower, before landing in Dallas.
So, how much more should Tavares command than Duchene? That’s the big question facing Leafs management. It’s very likely that his AAV will come in above Duchene’s $4.5 million — perhaps $1 million to $2.5 million more per year, depending on the final term and structure. But at the very least, the Duchene contract gives the Leafs a firm starting point for negotiations.
Another consideration is that the Maple Leafs appear to want to retain Tavares for more than just what he offers on the ice. He’s a locker room leader, the team’s captain, and a player whose influence extends beyond just scoring or assist totals. Retaining him on a reasonable contract would not only keep an important veteran in place but would also reflect the team’s commitment to long-standing contributors as they push to retool their roster around their core.
The Leafs’ ability to manage this deal successfully is pivotal. They are at a point in their development where they can’t afford to be weighed down by bloated contracts, especially after opening cap space with Marner’s departure. The front office is clearly trying to strike a balance between loyalty and performance, ensuring that experienced players like Tavares can remain while still giving the team enough flexibility to pursue impact acquisitions in free agency or the trade market.
Of course, there’s no guarantee the two sides will agree on something soon, or even this summer. Tavares could wait and test the open market in 2026, though that seems unlikely. His long-standing ties to Toronto, his leadership role, and his likely desire to finish his career with the team that he grew up dreaming about playing for, all point toward a renewed deal eventually being struck.
In summary, the Matt Duchene contract has become a clear and useful benchmark for the Maple Leafs in their upcoming negotiations with John Tavares. While Toronto won’t replicate it exactly — given different tax structures, cap situations, and player roles — it gives the team a better negotiating framework than before. The goal is to land Tavares at a number that reflects both his age and value while preserving enough space for Toronto to pursue further upgrades this offseason.
With over $25 million in cap room, the Leafs are in a better position than many contenders. Making smart decisions like a reasonably priced Tavares extension could go a long way in shaping the competitive future of the franchise.
