Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020—seven from each conference—a new issue has emerged in the postseason structure. This weekend, three teams with better regular-season records than their opponents will face the unusual challenge of playing their wild-card games on the road.
Under the league’s current rules, division winners are automatically granted home-field advantage for their first playoff game, regardless of their records. While this system rewards division success, it can also lead to situations where stronger teams face disadvantageous road matchups, increasing the possibility of unexpected outcomes.
This issue has prompted discussion about potential changes. According to a report by CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones, the NFL might reconsider its seeding approach during the offseason to find a system that better rewards strong regular-season performances. Jones suggested that a new structure could rank the top four teams in each conference by win percentage rather than strictly by division titles. This adjustment would ensure that higher-performing teams receive the benefit of hosting playoff games. However, the idea remains speculative at this point, as it has not been formally proposed.
One potential obstacle to such a change is the resistance from team owners. Jones noted that many owners appear reluctant to overhaul the current system, perhaps due to concerns about diminishing the value of winning a division title. Division titles have traditionally held significant weight in determining postseason dynamics, and some stakeholders may be hesitant to move away from that precedent.
The situation has come to a head this year as several playoff matchups highlight the disparities created by the current system. The Minnesota Vikings, with a 14-3 record, are the NFC’s fifth seed but must play on the road against a division-winning opponent with only 10 wins. Similarly, the Washington Commanders, at 12-5, hold the NFC’s sixth seed and will also play away against a lower-performing division champion. In the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers, with an 11-6 record, are the fifth seed and face a road game against the 10-7 Houston Texans, the AFC South champions.
If a win-percentage-based system were implemented, the Vikings would likely be the second or third seed in the NFC, depending on tiebreakers. This adjustment would grant them a home playoff game, better reflecting their superior performance during the regular season. The Commanders would be elevated to the fourth seed, earning them a home game as well. The Green Bay Packers, who are currently the NFC’s seventh seed at 11-6, would remain in the wild-card round but would climb to the fifth seed and still play on the road.
In the AFC, the Chargers would benefit significantly from the proposed change. Under a win-percentage system, they would rise to the fourth seed, effectively swapping places with the Texans. This would allow Los Angeles to host the wild-card game instead of traveling to Houston.
However, practical considerations could complicate any potential changes. For example, the ongoing wildfire crisis in California has already disrupted the NFL schedule this season. The Los Angeles Rams, who earned a home playoff game, had their matchup relocated to Glendale, Arizona, due to the worsening natural disaster. This situation raises questions about how external factors, such as emergencies or natural disasters, could impact the logistics of a restructured playoff system.
While the idea of reshaping playoff seeding to prioritize win percentages over division titles remains theoretical, it has reignited a broader conversation about fairness in postseason play. The NFL has long grappled with balancing tradition and innovation, and this debate reflects that ongoing tension. Whether the league ultimately decides to adjust its approach will depend on a variety of factors, including owner support, competitive integrity, and logistical feasibility.
For now, teams like the Vikings, Commanders, and Chargers will have to face the challenge of playing on the road, despite earning better records than their opponents. As the league evaluates its options during the offseason, the focus will remain on ensuring that the playoff structure reflects and rewards the achievements of the regular season as accurately as possible.
