The College Football Playoff (CFP) system, while once met with indifference, is increasingly recognized for its flaws and is seen as ripe for change. The current format incorporates aspects from the NFL that many view negatively, such as the overseeding of division and conference champions and the use of neutral sites for playoff games. These features have sparked criticism, and there is a growing consensus that the system could be improved. However, a deeper, often overlooked aspect of the playoff system is the role of coaching, which is becoming more critical than ever in determining the outcome of the postseason.
When we talk about coaching in this context, we are referring to the strategic aspects of the game—the X’s and O’s that separate the great coaches from those who may rely more on their personal charisma. Coaching in this sense involves identifying weaknesses in the opponent’s strategy, making quick adjustments during the game, and making crucial decisions that can change the course of the game. As the talent level across teams becomes more even—much like in the NFL—the pressure on coaches to guide their teams through at least three playoff games to secure a national title is growing.
To understand this evolution, consider the New England Patriots’ dynasty under Bill Belichick. During many of their Super Bowl wins, the Patriots found themselves in tight spots heading into the final quarter. What set Belichick apart was his ability to recognize and exploit small advantages or completely shift his strategy when necessary. While college football coaches don’t have the same flexibility in adjusting plays—due to the limited experience of young players balancing academics and athletics—the need for in-game adaptability is still crucial. College football coaches must also demonstrate their ability to make crucial adjustments under pressure, especially when facing multiple top-tier teams in a single postseason.
The coaching talent needed to navigate the increasingly competitive landscape of college football is not just about tactical brilliance. Some coaches excel by focusing on recruiting, maintaining team morale, and developing a strategy that allows their teams to win consistently without overcomplicating matters. However, when the playoffs bring the challenge of playing multiple elite teams in succession, the true strengths and weaknesses of a coach’s strategies and abilities become apparent.
The 2019 LSU Tigers are a prime example of a team that achieved success through a combination of talent and smart coaching. Such dynastic teams, however, may become rarer in the future. In the past, coaches like Nick Saban at Alabama could rely on a well-recruited, stable roster and avoid major setbacks due to a format that allowed one or two slip-ups in the regular season and still offered a path to playoff glory. However, the landscape has shifted with the advent of the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals and relaxed transfer rules, which have increased player movement and contributed to greater parity across the college football world. Under these new conditions, coaching strategies must be more adaptive and flexible to navigate the uncertainties brought on by these changes.
Coaches like Saban and Bobby Bowden, who dominated college football during their respective eras, thrived in an environment that allowed for sustained dominance through the accumulation of talent. However, those times are shifting. Today’s college football coaches must possess the agility to adapt to the increasing unpredictability caused by transfers, NIL deals, and changes in roster composition.
From 2015 to 2022, most CFP games were not particularly close, with 18 out of 24 games being decided by comfortable margins. This was a period when the playoff system, without the added chaos of player transfers and NIL deals, allowed teams to maintain relatively stable rosters. But with the introduction of NIL deals and the easing of transfer rules in 2021, the competitive balance in college football has begun to change, leading to more exciting and closer games. By 2023 and 2024, the playoff games became much more dramatic, with four out of six games decided by narrow margins.
Coaches like Dan Lanning of the Oregon Ducks are embodying the kind of innovation that will likely become more prevalent in the playoff era. Lanning’s strategic use of too many players on the field during a critical moment against Ohio State is a prime example of how a well-timed tactical decision can disrupt the course of a game. His strategy was bold and clever, showing that in this new era of college football, coaches must be prepared to make high-pressure decisions that could swing the game in their favor. Even as the NCAA moves to amend the rule, Lanning’s decision highlighted the importance of creativity and quick thinking in critical situations.
As college football games grow increasingly competitive, with nail-biting finishes becoming the norm, the scrutiny on coaches will intensify. Coaching decisions—ranging from game management to tactical shifts—will play an even more significant role in shaping the outcomes of playoff games. The current era of college football, with its new landscape shaped by NIL deals and transfer rules, will test the strategic brilliance of the coaches at the helm. The next few weeks of the College Football Playoff should provide clarity on which coaches are able to rise to the occasion and prove themselves as the great minds of the game today. It will be a time when the true strategic masterminds are separated from the rest, and where tactical decision-making will prove to be the difference between victory and defeat.
