Applying the Five-Year Oscar Test to the JT Miller Trade
In the midst of summer’s slower pace for hockey news, CanucksArmy is indulging in some unconventional analysis. Today, we’ll draw an analogy between film awards and hockey trades, specifically evaluating the Vancouver Canucks’ acquisition of JT Miller through a lens similar to the “Five-Year Oscar Test” often discussed in film circles.
The “Five-Year Oscar Test” is a concept popularized by commentators like Bill Simmons and Jack O’Brien. It suggests that the Oscars often reward films that, while acclaimed at the time, don’t necessarily hold up well over the long term. According to this idea, many Best Picture winners are quickly overshadowed by other films from the same year that might have had a more lasting impact. To accurately assess a film’s true significance, it’s recommended to wait five years before evaluating its worth.
We can apply this principle to hockey trades, examining their outcomes after a similar period. A fitting case study is the trade the Canucks made during the 2019 Draft Weekend, acquiring JT Miller from the Tampa Bay Lightning.
At the time, the Canucks traded a conditional 2020 first-round pick, a 2019 third-round pick, and goaltender Marek Mazanec for Miller. Miller, coming off a season with 13 goals and 47 points, was signed to a four-year contract with a $5.25 million annual cap hit. The trade drew significant criticism, with many questioning the value of giving up future assets, especially given the Canucks’ recent struggles and their new young stars, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.
In retrospect, the initial skepticism about the trade seems misplaced. By applying the Five-Year Oscar Test, we can see how the trade’s value has evolved.
Examining the components of the trade reveals a more favorable outcome for the Canucks. Marek Mazanec, who was sent to Tampa as part of the deal, never played for the Lightning and eventually returned to play in the Czech Republic, where he has since enjoyed success. His absence from the Canucks’ roster meant that Thatcher Demko could step up, which has been beneficial for the team.
The third-round pick the Canucks gave up turned into Hugo Alnefelt, a Swedish goaltender. Although Alnefelt showed promise early in his career, including strong performances in the SHL and World Juniors, his NHL impact has been minimal. With limited experience in North America, he has returned to Sweden, leaving his future in the NHL uncertain.
The conditional first-round pick had a more complex journey. The pick was conditional on the Canucks making the playoffs in the 2019/20 season. Although Vancouver was technically out of a playoff spot when the regular season ended, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a unique playoff format. The Canucks made the playoffs through a play-in series, fulfilling the condition. However, the pick was subsequently traded to the New Jersey Devils as part of a deal for Blake Coleman.
The Devils used the pick to select Shakir Mukhamadullin, a defenseman who has shown potential. Mukhamadullin made his NHL debut with the San Jose Sharks and remains a notable prospect. Nonetheless, his impact is yet to match that of Miller’s contributions to Vancouver.
Miller’s performance with the Canucks has proven to be invaluable. His debut season in Vancouver saw career highs in goals (27), assists (45), and points (72), along with a strong playoff showing. Despite some ups and downs, including a notable criticism period during a less successful season, Miller hit his stride with a remarkable 99-point season in 2021/22. This performance was crucial as he approached the end of his contract, and the Canucks extended him with a seven-year, $8 million annual average value contract.
Miller continued to excel, achieving personal bests in goals (37), assists (66), and points (103) during the 2023/24 season. His performance helped propel the Canucks into the playoffs and deep into the postseason, highlighting his critical role in the team’s success. Miller has also taken on leadership roles and improved his game, addressing previous criticisms and contributing significantly to the team’s development.
The impact of the Miller trade has been significant for the Canucks. He has become a central figure in the team’s core, complementing the development of Pettersson and Hughes. The trade, which initially seemed questionable, has proven to be a pivotal move, enhancing the team’s competitiveness and future prospects.
In conclusion, the JT Miller trade, when evaluated through the Five-Year Oscar Test, has emerged as a highly successful decision for the Canucks. It’s a move that has reinforced the team’s core and contributed to their growth, making it a trade worthy of recognition for its long-term impact.
