The future of Nolan Arenado with the St. Louis Cardinals continues to be a hot topic as the offseason progresses. Despite widespread speculation, the eight-time All-Star has yet to be traded. Arenado, one of baseball’s elite players, has garnered attention as a potential trade candidate, but recent conversations around him have quieted. With Spring Training on the horizon, his status remains uncertain.
Arenado’s current contract complicates the situation. He is owed approximately $74 million over the next three years, a significant financial commitment for any potential suitor. Additionally, Arenado’s no-trade clause gives him control over his destination, further complicating trade negotiations. For the Cardinals, finding a suitable trade partner that aligns with Arenado’s preferences and provides value in return is a challenging balancing act.
In a recent analysis, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat made predictions regarding the Cardinals’ offseason moves. One notable prediction was that Arenado will be traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. Jones explained that Philadelphia, while a “dark horse” contender at the start of the offseason, remains a logical landing spot for Arenado. The Phillies’ willingness to pursue star players, their financial flexibility, and their interest in bolstering their roster align well with a potential deal for the decorated third baseman.
“Philadelphia was the dark horse prediction that made sense at the start of the offseason, and it does even still,” Jones wrote. “The Phillies seem sincere in their desire to move on from Alec Bohm, and they have never been shy about chasing star power and the big dollars which accompany it.” Jones further suggested that Arenado, at this stage in his career, fits best as a key defensive asset and a reliable contributor to an already stacked Phillies lineup.
If the trade materializes, Arenado would join a formidable roster featuring stars like Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. In this environment, Arenado wouldn’t need to carry the team as its centerpiece but could instead thrive as a critical piece in a championship-caliber lineup.
The Phillies’ apparent willingness to part ways with Alec Bohm makes this trade scenario even more plausible. Moving Bohm could create room for Arenado at third base while addressing the team’s desire to improve defensively. Arenado’s 10 Gold Glove Awards speak to his unparalleled defensive abilities, making him an ideal upgrade at the hot corner for Philadelphia.
Jones also highlighted the existing rapport between the two organizations. The Cardinals and Phillies have engaged in trade discussions in the past, most notably during Philadelphia’s pursuit of Jordan Montgomery at the 2023 trade deadline. This familiarity and trust in each other’s systems could streamline negotiations, while Arenado’s pre-existing relationships within the Phillies’ clubhouse might help ease his transition to a new team.
This potential deal, while still speculative, checks many boxes for both sides. For the Cardinals, trading Arenado would provide financial relief and possibly net them young talent or other valuable assets to support their long-term goals. For the Phillies, acquiring Arenado would solidify their infield defense and deepen an already powerful lineup, positioning them as strong contenders in the National League.
Despite the merits of this trade scenario, much hinges on external factors. One key variable is the outcome of the Alex Bregman sweepstakes. Bregman, another high-profile third baseman, has been the focus of trade discussions this offseason. Should Bregman find a new home first, it could shift the market dynamics for Arenado and prompt renewed interest in the Cardinals’ star.
Ultimately, Arenado’s no-trade clause gives him significant leverage in determining his future. Any trade will require his approval, meaning the Phillies or any other team will need to meet his expectations both on and off the field. This level of control underscores the complexity of the situation and adds an additional layer of intrigue to the offseason.
As the Cardinals and Phillies navigate this potential blockbuster deal, fans and analysts alike will closely monitor developments. A trade involving Arenado would have significant implications for both franchises, reshaping their rosters and altering the landscape of the National League. For now, the baseball world waits to see whether Arenado will don a Phillies uniform in 2025 or remain with the Cardinals as Spring Training approaches.
