Alabama’s College Football Playoff Hopes Hinged on Final Four November Games
With losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, Alabama’s playoff hopes are on thin ice as they approach the final stretch. The Crimson Tide currently have a 53% chance to secure a spot in the expanded 12-team playoff, with crucial games remaining against LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma, and Auburn, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Here’s a breakdown of what each matchup could mean for Alabama’s CFP bid.
Alabama at LSU | Nov. 9, 6:30 p.m. CT, ABC
Alabama’s toughest challenge will come first with a prime-time game at LSU. With both teams holding two losses, this matchup is considered by many to be a CFP elimination game. A loss to LSU would drop Alabama’s CFP chances to 14%, even if they win the rest of their games.
LSU’s defense has struggled, allowing over 22 points per game and ranking near the bottom in the SEC with 372 yards allowed per game. Offensively, however, the Tigers excel in the passing game, led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Alabama vs. Mercer | Nov. 16, 1 p.m. CT, ESPN+
Alabama’s yearly FCS game likely won’t impact their CFP chances, as the Crimson Tide historically dominate FCS opponents. In 2017, Alabama defeated Mercer 56-0, and a similar outcome is expected this time around.
Alabama at Oklahoma | Nov. 23
Oklahoma has struggled in its SEC debut, with four losses in five conference games. Alabama’s last regular-season meetings with Oklahoma were in 2002-03, both Oklahoma victories. This year, Oklahoma ranks near the bottom in offensive production within the SEC, with 21.1 points per game and 293.3 yards per game.
A loss to Oklahoma would drop Alabama’s playoff odds to 19%, assuming wins in their other three games.
Alabama vs. Auburn | Nov. 30
The Iron Bowl remains unpredictable, but Auburn’s 2024 season has been challenging, with only one SEC victory. Auburn’s SEC losses to Oklahoma and Missouri were by slim margins, however, keeping the game interesting.
Alabama’s CFP hopes would fall to 18% with a loss to Auburn but victories over LSU, Mercer, and Oklahoma. Auburn will aim to break their losing streak against Alabama, seeking their first Iron Bowl victory in Tuscaloosa since 2010.
