Should the Tigers Extend All-Star Outfielder Riley Greene?
The Detroit Tigers enter the offseason with significant payroll flexibility, as outlined in their recent outlook. Despite uncertainty surrounding future broadcasting contracts, the Tigers have only two players—Javier Baez and Colt Keith—locked into guaranteed contracts beyond 2025, totaling $28 million across 2026 and 2027.
Tarik Skubal, another key player, is entering his last two years of arbitration, projected to earn around $8 million in 2025, potentially rising to $16 million in 2026. While Jason Foley’s arbitration costs are also on the rise, he is only now becoming arbitration-eligible. Meanwhile, players like Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson will not reach arbitration until 2026, allowing the Tigers to maintain payroll space for strategic investments, particularly after their unexpected playoff run this past season.
One of the players the Tigers may consider extending is outfielder Riley Greene, an All-Star and a crucial part of their rebuilding efforts. Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Greene has consistently ranked among the top prospects in baseball. He debuted in the major leagues in 2022, hitting .253 with a .321 on-base percentage and a .362 slugging percentage over 418 plate appearances. His 2023 performance showed marked improvement, with a .288 batting average and 11 home runs, though injuries limited his playing time.
In 2024, Greene faced further challenges, missing nearly a month due to a hamstring strain. Nevertheless, he had a breakout season, achieving a .262 batting average with 25 home runs over 584 plate appearances, which translated to a wRC+ of 135. His return from injury on August 18 sparked a late-season surge for the Tigers, leading them to a wild card spot.
Although Greene’s postseason performance was underwhelming, his consistency during the regular season was vital to the Tigers’ success, especially as other hitters like Keith and Meadows struggled early on. Greene’s advanced metrics also show promising progress, as he significantly increased his barrel rate and improved his walk percentage to 11%, while maintaining a respectable chase rate.
Defensively, Greene transitioned from center field to left field this season due to earlier struggles. In his new role, he excelled, recording +14 Defensive Runs Saved and +11.7 UZR/150 over more than 700 innings. Given the demands of Comerica Park’s expansive outfield, Greene’s defensive capabilities are a valuable asset to the team.
At just 24 years old, Greene has a solid future ahead. He will remain on a minimal salary for the 2025 season, as he will not be eligible for arbitration until 2026. This gives the Tigers significant time for a potential extension. While Greene’s injury history could make the team cautious, it could also present an opportunity to negotiate a favorable deal.
The landscape for player extensions varies widely, particularly for those with two to three years of MLB experience. Greene’s representatives may argue for a deal comparable to those of high-profile players like Bobby Witt Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr., though notable differences exist, such as position value and age at the time of signing.
If Greene maintains his performance, he could command a substantial contract upon reaching free agency at the end of his age-28 season. An extension covering the Tigers’ four years of control might also interest Greene, providing him with security without altering his free-agent timeline. This scenario could offer the Tigers cost certainty through Greene’s arbitration years, but they might prefer to secure a longer commitment that includes free-agent years.
Comparing potential deals, Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115 million extension serves as a reference point for Greene. Alvarez signed this deal shortly before his 25th birthday, having demonstrated a level of performance that Greene has yet to match. However, Greene’s defensive capabilities provide significant value that Alvarez’s contract does not fully account for.
Unlike the Astros, the Tigers do not seem to have a strict limit on contract length, which means Greene’s extension could exceed six years. However, it’s unclear how the Tigers’ management will approach such a deal, as extending a player like Greene would mark a significant step forward in their rebuilding process. The organization has only executed one extension under the current leadership, which was a far less impactful deal for Keith.
Still, extending a player before his major league debut, as the Tigers did with Keith, suggests a proactive approach to retaining core talent. While Skubal’s immediate future might take precedence, Greene is also a candidate for an early extension, particularly given the likelihood that he would be more open to a multi-year contract than some of his peers.
Ultimately, while there’s no urgency for an extension now, waiting for another strong season could benefit both parties by increasing Greene’s market value. The Tigers, with their clean financial slate, might find it advantageous to solidify Greene’s role as a key figure in their new era, potentially setting the stage for a lucrative contract that aligns with his evolving talent and the team’s long-term vision.
