As the 2024 NRL regular season nears its conclusion, the final teams are positioning themselves for the playoffs, with Melbourne Storm having secured the minor premiership following their recent victory and the Panthers’ unexpected loss. Both teams are now focusing on reaching the Grand Final. Meanwhile, teams such as the Sea Eagles and Dragons are striving to make a return to the finals, while the Dolphins, Knights, and Broncos are also in contention.
The Sporting News evaluates the leading contenders for the Grand Final and provides betting odds and predictions for the season. According to bookmakers, three teams are considered strong favorites to reach the Grand Final, all of which have won in the past seven years. The Storm, having claimed the minor premiership, are leading the odds at $3.10, slightly ahead of the Panthers, who are at $3.50 after suffering two losses in their last three games. The Sydney Roosters follow closely at $3.75, showing improved form as the season progresses.
The odds show a significant gap between these top three teams and those further down the list. The Cronulla Sharks and Canterbury Bulldogs are priced at $11.00 and $13.00, respectively, while teams just outside the top eight, such as the Broncos and Dragons, have much longer odds, reflecting the challenge they face in securing a Grand Final spot. Historically, no team outside the top four has won the premiership since 1995, which influences the betting perspective.
Odds for reaching the Grand Final also vary. The Storm lead at $1.62, followed by the Panthers and Roosters at $1.83. The Sharks and Bulldogs have higher odds at $4.50 and $7.00, respectively, with the Sea Eagles, Cowboys, and other teams facing even steeper challenges.
The historical performance of teams suggests that Grand Final contenders typically finish in the top four. Since the finals system changed in 2012, only two teams from outside the top four have reached the Grand Final: the Bulldogs in 2014 (7th) and the North Queensland Cowboys in 2017 (8th). Both teams were defeated heavily in their respective finals. Additionally, no team outside the top four has won the premiership in nearly three decades.
Recent trends indicate that winning in the first week of the finals is a strong indicator of eventual Grand Final success. Since 2012, only one team that lost in week one has gone on to win the Grand Final. This exception occurred in 2021 when the Panthers, after losing to the Rabbitohs in week one, rebounded to defeat the Eels and the minor premiers, Melbourne, before winning the Grand Final in a close rematch against the Rabbitohs.
Looking ahead, with only three rounds remaining, the exact composition of the finals is still uncertain. However, based on current standings, a Grand Final featuring Melbourne and Penrith seems plausible, echoing their 2020 decider. Both teams have managed injuries and maintained superior performance levels, bolstered by experienced players and coaching staff.
In the first week of the finals, Melbourne is set to face Cronulla, a team with a poor track record against Melbourne but that managed a rare victory during the regular season. Similarly, the Roosters are preparing to face Penrith, who have a dominant nine-game winning streak against them.
Among teams outside the top four, the Bulldogs are seen as the most likely to disrupt the expected lineup. Their strong finish to the season and victories over key competitors like Sydney and Cronulla, coupled with standout performances from players such as Stephen Crichton, make them a team to watch.
The 2024 NRL Grand Final is scheduled for October 6 at Accor Stadium in Sydney. This venue has hosted the Grand Final every year since 1999, except in 2021 when the game was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane due to COVID restrictions. The Grand Final is expected to continue being held at Accor Stadium until at least 2046, maintaining its status as the focal point of the NRL season’s culmination.
