2024-25 Vancouver Canucks Season Prediction: Nils Höglander Expected to Sustain or Improve Production
As the NHL’s 2024/25 season looms, we find ourselves eagerly anticipating its arrival. Although the season is still over two months away, the excitement is palpable, especially given the thrilling nature of the 2023/24 campaign.
In a recent update, David Quadrelli, our dedicated leader, highlighted the buzz surrounding the upcoming season, prompting us to share our late-summer predictions a bit earlier this year. Today, we delve into a forecast that challenges the prevailing narrative surrounding Nils Höglander.
Prediction: Nils Höglander Will Maintain His Production in 2024/25
The 2023/24 season marked a significant breakthrough for the 23-year-old Höglander. He achieved personal bests in games played (80), goals (24), and points (36). His 24 goals placed him fourth on the Canucks and tied for 90th overall in the NHL.
What stands out is that Höglander reached these numbers while averaging only 12:06 of ice time per game. His goals-per-60 rate of 1.58 was third in the league among players with regular roles, behind only Auston Matthews and Zach Hyman. Despite the impressive goal-scoring feat, recent discussions about Höglander have been somewhat perplexing.
The recent addition of Daniel Sprong has sparked talk about the Canucks potentially having an excess of forwards. With 15 forwards under contract for next season, including Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, Brock Boeser, and others, there’s speculation that a trade might be imminent to acquire a puck-moving defenseman. Höglander’s name has often surfaced in these discussions.
This speculation reflects a broader skepticism about Höglander’s ability to replicate his previous success. Many believe that his goal total from last season might be an outlier and doubt whether he can sustain such performance. However, this perspective doesn’t align with everyone’s view, including mine.
Addressing Concerns About Höglander’s Production
A key concern is Höglander’s shooting percentage, which was notably high at 20% last season, doubling his previous career rate. Such a high shooting percentage can often signal a statistical anomaly, suggesting a potential regression in his future performance. Höglander’s shooting percentage was the fourth-highest among NHL players with 20 or more goals last season. Thus, while his shooting efficiency may decrease, this doesn’t necessarily mean a decline in overall production.
Underlying statistics suggest that Höglander’s offensive output was genuine. He led the Canucks in several advanced metrics, including Corsi (53.25%), Expected Goals (54.48%), and high-danger chances (57.57%). Even with a lower assist count, Höglander was the 35th-most-frequent point producer in the NHL at 5-on-5. These metrics indicate a capacity to maintain his performance.
The context of his ice time is also crucial. Höglander averaged just 12:06 per game, placing him 344th among NHL forwards with at least 20 games. His deployment was neither heavily sheltered nor unusually advantageous, with starts split between offensive and defensive zones and a competitive level of opposition.
Evaluating Höglander’s Linemates and Deployment
There’s a belief that Höglander benefited significantly from playing with Elias Pettersson. However, statistical analysis shows that Höglander’s production remained consistent regardless of his linemates. He scored 44.4% of his even-strength points while playing with Pettersson, but also managed 27.8% of his points alongside Sam Lafferty, who was not a top-line player.
This suggests that Höglander’s performance was less influenced by his linemates and more indicative of his own abilities. His potential for 2024/25 might be positively impacted by a renewed partnership with Pettersson, possibly alongside newcomer Jake DeBrusk, known for his consistent scoring.
DeBrusk’s presence could offer Höglander more opportunities for offensive setups and finishes compared to last season’s support, such as Ilya Mikheyev. This change could benefit Höglander’s production.
Assessing Höglander’s Skills and Development
Beyond external factors, Höglander’s intrinsic skills are noteworthy. His distinctive playing style—characterized by his low center of gravity and ability to position himself advantageously—should continue to be an asset, even if his shooting percentage normalizes.
Höglander’s strong rookie season, with 13 goals and 27 points in 56 games, followed by a promising sophomore year with 24 goals, highlights his development trajectory. Despite some challenging seasons, his overall progress demonstrates a player on the rise. His personal drive and skill set contribute to his potential for maintaining or even increasing his production in the upcoming season.
Given the current trends and analysis, it’s likely that Höglander’s shooting percentage will decrease, but his ice time and opportunities should increase. With more shots expected and a potentially more productive role alongside Pettersson and DeBrusk, Höglander is well-positioned to maintain or improve his overall production.
While a slight dip in goal numbers might be possible, Höglander’s overall performance is expected to remain strong. We predict that he will end up with a similar goal total, improve his assist numbers, and thus increase his overall points. Höglander’s ability to defy expectations has been demonstrated before, and there’s reason to believe he can do so again.
