The Detroit Tigers are grappling with a significant challenge whenever Kenta Maeda takes the mound: they’ve endured a disheartening streak of eight consecutive losses in games he starts. With another start scheduled for Sunday against the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers, there’s a palpable concern that this streak could extend to nine losses.
Given this predicament, the Tigers are likely considering a strategic maneuver to skip Maeda’s scheduled start, which falls just before the All-Star break. This decision would grant them additional time to devise a more effective plan moving forward. Weather conditions, potentially inclement, could facilitate a reshuffle of the pitching rotation. Alternatively, a bullpen-focused approach heading into the break remains a viable and popular solution. Sending Maeda to face one of baseball’s top offenses under current circumstances appears, frankly, unkind.
Kenta Maeda, now 36, bears little resemblance to the pitcher who impressed with the Minnesota Twins last season. Concluding the 2023 season with a commendable 3.36 ERA across his final 17 appearances, where he struck out 103 batters and walked just 25 in 88 1/3 innings, Maeda’s performance led the Tigers to secure him on a lucrative two-year, $24 million deal.
Reflecting on Maeda’s struggles in 2024, his ERA has skyrocketed to 7.26 over 65 2/3 innings pitched this year, following another disappointing outing. Pinpointing the exact cause of his decline proves elusive, but a noticeable decline in strikeout rates, plummeting from 27.3 percent last season to a meager 17.1 percent this year, indicates a greater number of balls in play. Moreover, an elevated .325 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and career-high 5.1 percent home run rate further exacerbate his woes.
Maeda himself acknowledges the challenge: “It’s hard to pinpoint one thing. My pitching overall hasn’t been effective.” While some misfortune may even out over time, augmenting his strikeout numbers would notably aid his recovery. Despite a modest drop in average fastball velocity (from 90.8 mph to 90.3 mph), Maeda’s traditional strengths with his split-finger and slider pitches have faltered in 2024. Notably, his four-seam fastball has struggled immensely, carrying a -12 run value according to Savant, with opponents boasting a daunting .732 slugging percentage against it.
Despite these setbacks, there remains optimism that Maeda can rediscover his form. With sixteen seasons of successful professional pitching under his belt—eight in Japan and eight in the United States—there’s a resilient core to build upon. However, his age invites speculation about whether these struggles signify a career downturn.
Maeda himself reflects on this challenging phase: “Reflecting on my baseball career, I don’t think I’ve struggled this badly.” Undoubtedly, finding a solution is imperative for his continued career longevity.
The Tigers face a dilemma regarding Maeda’s future. Despite calls from frustrated fans for immediate action, such as designating him for assignment after every subpar start, the team is unlikely to sever ties and absorb the significant financial implications of his $15 million contract. Instead, they possess nearly three months to rehabilitate Maeda’s performance and recoup their investment.
Considering potential interventions, placing Maeda on the injured list to recuperate may offer a temporary respite. However, this option has been explored earlier in the season without yielding substantial improvement. Moreover, fabricating an injury as a pretext for sidelining him is now tightly regulated by the league, complicating such maneuvers. Maeda himself reaffirmed his physical readiness after his recent start, dispelling speculation of any undisclosed ailments.
Another proposal involves demoting Maeda to Triple-A Toledo to refine his skills, mirroring strategies that revived careers, like Anibal Sanchez’s resurgence in 2017. Yet, the success of such a move remains uncertain, potentially jeopardizing his MLB service time and the accompanying benefits that accrue with tenure.
The most plausible short-term strategy involves transitioning Maeda to the bullpen. While neither Maeda nor the Tigers might favor this scenario, it affords him opportunities to address his issues in less critical game situations. Earning redemption through solid bullpen performances could ultimately facilitate his return to the starting rotation.
Manager A.J. Hinch acknowledged the need for deliberation on future plans, acknowledging the upcoming All-Star break as an opportune period to reassess and rectify Maeda’s struggles. “We’ve got to unlock the things that he needs to do to be more effective,” Hinch emphasized, underscoring the team’s commitment to supporting Maeda in overcoming his current challenges.
In conclusion, the Tigers confront a complex decision regarding Kenta Maeda’s role, balancing the urgency to win with the investment in his potential resurgence. As discussions evolve, the team remains steadfast in their efforts to rejuvenate Maeda’s performance and salvage their season aspirations.
