In our previous discussion back in January, we focused on which team had the most favorable odds of signing Cody Bellinger to their roster. Now that Bellinger has officially been re-signed by the Chicago Cubs, our attention can shift towards a different set of odds: predicting the number of home runs he will hit in the upcoming 2024 season.
Despite experiencing a decline in his performance over the past couple of seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bellinger made a strong comeback in his first year with the Cubs. He achieved a batting average of .307, an on-base percentage of .356, and a slugging percentage of .525, along with hitting 26 home runs—marking the third-highest total of his career. In light of this, DraftKings has set the over/under for Bellinger’s home run count in the upcoming season at 23.5. Both the Over and the Under options are listed with favorable -110 odds.
Now the question arises: Which side, Over or Under 23.5, should you consider when placing your bet for this season?
CBS Sports has praised Cody Bellinger’s resurgence in the previous season, attributing it to adjustments he made to his swing. Writer Dayn Perry noted that Bellinger prioritized making more frequent contact over generating high-quality hits, resulting in a decrease in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. However, Bellinger’s total number of hits reached the second-highest of his career (153), and his strikeout percentage decreased significantly to become the second-lowest (87) he has achieved.
Perry acknowledges that this trade-off is not commonly seen in today’s era of baseball, as hitters typically prioritize power numbers and extra-base hits. Bellinger’s willingness to make this adjustment suggests that it could be a worthwhile strategy, potentially leading him to surpass the over/under line for home runs.
However, not everyone shares the same optimism about Bellinger’s comeback, especially from a fantasy perspective. The Athletic’s John Laghezza argues that Bellinger’s home run surge in the previous season was driven by an “unsustainable” 100% barrels-to-home-run ratio, significantly higher than the league average of around 54%. Laghezza also expresses concerns about Bellinger’s consistency, suggesting that his shift towards late-count contact may limit his power potential.
Considering these factors, along with Bellinger’s age and injury history (having a healthy season was crucial for his success), betting on the under for home runs seems like a more prudent option, according to Laghezza’s assessment.
When deciding whether to wager on the over or under for Bellinger’s home run count, it’s crucial to consider his performance during spring training. Although Bellinger will have a shortened camp, his preparation for the regular season can provide valuable insights into whether his comeback form from 2023 was sustained or if it was merely a fluke. While the adjustments he made to his game last season could continue to be advantageous, there is always a risk of inconsistency derailing his performance.
With approximately 20 spring training games remaining for the Cubs, it would be wise to observe a handful of Bellinger’s plate appearances before making a futures bet. This allows for a better understanding of his current form and can inform your decision regarding the over/under wager on his home run total.
