Wild-card weekend seemed like an inflection point in the big picture of NFL teams contending for a Super Bowl. On a weekend in which recent Super Bowl attendees — the Eagles and Rams — were sent packing, a series of teams with young quarterbacks advanced. After three seasons with a combined record of 11-38-1, C.J. Stroud led the Texans to a blowout win over the Browns. And while the Packers don’t quite fit that definition, a team that was 3-6 and wondering whether it had made the right choice at quarterback saw Jordan Love light up the Cowboys in a 48-32 victory in Arlington, Texas.
My original article on the value of a quarterback on a rookie deal dates back to 2013. The four quarterbacks I highlighted in that piece were 2012 breakouts Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, the latter of whom is the only one remaining in the NFL. Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz have won Super Bowls as their team’s primary quarterback on a rookie deal since then, and nearly half of the remaining playoff field is quarterbacked by a player on his first contract.
Which of the teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals is best positioned to win a Super Bowl over the next three seasons? The teams in the actual playoff bracket have a leg up on the competition, of course, but Houston’s sudden turnaround is a reminder of just how quickly the right quarterback (and a few key players around him) can change the complexion of a franchise and its ceiling.
Right now, there are 14 teams that have starting quarterbacks on a rookie deal who haven’t yet earned a multiyear extension. (Love took a small pay cut in 2024 to have his fifth-year option picked up by the Packers.) Let’s sort through them and their chances of winning a Super Bowl before 2026, after which most of these quarterbacks will either be eligible for a second deal, on one or playing somewhere else.
I’ll start with the teams further away from contention quickly before hitting the top six:
Group I: When rookie quarterback contracts go wrong
There’s a series of teams with rookie quarterbacks under contract that will likely look to replace or challenge those quarterbacks this offseason. I’m not sure they’re gaining a meaningful advantage by having that passer under center. These teams are listed below in alphabetical order, and they’re in relatively different phases of contention, but they’re linked by the holes they have at the position.
The Atlanta Falcons are the sort of team that could make a quick leap. A new-look defense with six new starters imported from other teams finished 12th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. The offensive line is sound, and you don’t need me to tell you about their playmakers after they have used three top-10 draft picks on skill-position players in recent years. All of that led to a 7-10 record in 2023, but much of the blame for that has been placed on coach Arthur Smith, who was fired after Week 18.
All that’s left for the Falcons to do is land difference-makers at the two most important positions in any organization: coach and quarterback. Desmond Ridder was benched multiple times this season, and third-round picks who disappoint in their crack at the starting job typically don’t get another year to prove whether they can do it. Ridder would be the incumbent by default if Atlanta doesn’t add anybody, but the new coach seems likely to bring in at least one passer to serve as the presumptive starter in 2024.
The Las Vegas Raiders also need to make a decision about their coach, with the status of Antonio Pierce, who posted a 5-4 record as the interim coach, in question. Pierce has the support of his players — and team owner Mark Davis will remember what happened in 2022 when he went against the locker room’s wishes to bring back Rich Bisaccia and hired Josh McDaniels — but the Raiders had one win against a team with a winning record in Pierce’s nine games, when they beat the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
Pierce has done enough to earn the job, especially if he can repeat the feat with a defense that ranked second in points allowed per possession after he was promoted to the head job in November. Las Vegas had the league’s 11th-oldest roster, though, with plenty of snaps from free agents who were brought in to supplement all the missing draft picks that went south during the Jon Gruden era. Some of those players, including wideout Davante Adams, linebacker Robert Spillane and guard Greg Van Roten, were positive difference-makers, but the Raiders are older and missing talent at so many core positions. Rookie top-10 pick Tyree Wilson was also a major disappointment, as the edge rusher had 3.5 sacks.
Rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell took over the starting quarterback job from Jimmy Garoppolo and enjoyed a four-touchdown day in the blowout victory over the Chargers, but he finished 25th in QBR, throwing 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He should be back on the roster in 2024, but handing him the starting job by default would be a lot like what the Texans did with Davis Mills in 2022 and the Falcons with Ridder this season. With Garoppolo on his way out, the Raiders will need a new veteran backup, preferably one who can push O’Connell.
The New England Patriots already have their new coach after they promoted Jerod Mayo. And like the Raiders, they have a defense that got hot in the second half; they led the league in points allowed per possession, even without their best pass-rusher (Matthew Judon) and most promising young cornerback (rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez). It remains to be seen whether Mayo can keep up that level of play on defense without his legendary former boss, but the Pats will count on the defense as the strength of the team.
That’s good, because the offense … well, you saw them play. The Patriots cycled between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback, never seemed settled along the offensive line and had what was arguably the league’s worst group of playmakers. It seems impossible to believe they would run things back without making a change at quarterback, but with the No. 3 overall pick, they are likely out of the running for one of the top two passers. They also need building blocks at wide receiver and left tackle, which could lead them to Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) or Joe Alt (Notre Dame). Mayo & Co. can’t satisfy all of their needs on draft day, though. A move for Garoppolo would seem to make sense, if serve as a relatively unsatisfying short-term solution. New England is more than a year away.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were just in the playoffs, but after being eliminated by the Bills, they face an uncertain path forward. Reports have suggested coach Mike Tomlin is set to return, which resolves one major concern. They fielded the league’s oldest defense by snap-weighted age, so while they landed on a pair of future standouts in cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton in the 2023 draft, their defense probably won’t be as good in 2024.
On the other hand, the Steelers have the league’s third-youngest offense, and we saw signs of life from running back Najee Harris and wide receiver George Pickens at the end of the season. The only problem is those signs of life came with longtime backup Mason Rudolph in the fold after a disappointing season from Kenny Pickett, who entered the regular season with breakout hype, only to post the league’s 27th-best QBR before suffering an ankle injury. He reportedly was healthy by the end of the season, but Tomlin decided against going back to the 2022 first-rounder down the stretch.
