How much are the various Newcastle United players worth, if the club decided to sell them?
A topical subject at the moment, with Eddie Howe saying that just like every other club, NUFC may at times sell one or more player due to FFP restrictions.
With how FFP / amortisation works, selling a player could then in FFP terms allow them to spend up to five times as much as the basic transfer received. How much more, depending on each player’s individual circumstances.
A lot of nonsense has been talked, especially in the media, since Eddie Howe’s comments. However, he was at pains to say that deciding to sell a player to allow Newcastle United to spend far more, does not necessarily mean selling NUFC’s very best players.
The lazy media pretty much all ignoring / forgetting that Eddie Howe and Newcastle United have already shown how the above will work in reality.
Last summer, Allan Saint-Maximin had become no longer a first eleven choice but Eddie Howe would still have preferred to keep him, yet sold him. Whilst his sale price was only £23m, that ASM transfer fee meant so much more in FFP terms, as it then allowed them to buy Harvey Barnes (£40m) and Tino Livramento (£38m), as well as contributing (in FFP terms) to part of the purchase price of Sandro Tonali.
Anyway, when it comes to hypotheticals, what would the various Newcastle United players be valued at if sold at the moment?
Here are some ‘interesting’ valuations…
The Athletic report – 17 January 2024:
‘The data science team at Twenty First Group — a company which specialises in delivering sports intelligence and data insights directly to clubs and potential owners, including Newcastle previously — has placed an individual estimated market price on each player within Howe’s squad.
Their model estimates the likely sale price for a player if they were transferred today, accounting for performance, age, position, experience and contract status, as well as the type of potential buyer and their relative levels of wealth…’
£89.8m Alexander Isak
£75.7m Sandro Tonali
£67.6m Bruno
£49.4m Joe Willock
£48.3m Sven Botman
£45.5m Harvey Barnes
£38.2m Lewis Miley
£34.6m Anthony Gordon
£34.4m Joelinton
£31.0m Miguel Almiron
£31.0m Sean Longstaff
£20.7m Fabian Schar
£19.7m Nick Pope
£17.7m Tino Livramento
£17.2m Callum Wilson
£17.1m Kieran Trippier
£14.7m Dan Burn
£13.1m Jacob Murphy
£5.9m Elliot Anderson
£5.3m Jamaal Lascelles
£4.5m Lewis Hall
There is some interesting stuff on The Athletic but I’m afraid using these valuations makes them look a little ridiculous.
I think they should have asked Twenty First Group to do what I do at home with the TV, Washing Machine etc when they are not working properly. The Athletic should have asked them to go away, turn their valuation model off and back on, then see if that gets it working properly again.
There are any number of companies / organisations that come up with estimated current player values.
They all tend to use similar factors to help come up with the estimated valuations, such as how the individual has performed, age of the player and how long left on their contracts.
However, the key thing they also use, which this Twenty First Group appear to have ignored in many cases, is how much many of these Newcastle United players were bought for.
Tino Livramento was bought for a reported £38m (£32m plus £6m in potential future payments), he has played brilliantly for Newcastle in Premier League and Champions League, plus man of the match against both Man City and Man U in the League Cup, yet according to this valuation system he has more than halved in value (£17.7m)!!!
Anthony Gordon cost £45m in total (£40m + £5m in future payments), he has been one of the best Premier League performers this season, is tenth top scorer in the division with seven goals and has five assists, yet is now worth £10m less than Newcastle paid!
So many valuations are laughable, including some where I think fair to say the estimates are far higher than reality / common sense.
However, I think another stand out daft overly low valuation is Joelinton. This valuation model has him dropping in value from the £40m Newcastle United paid down to £34.4m now, yet Eddie Howe has turned him into one of the Premier League’s best midfielders AND he’s now a regular in the Brazil squad!
